Ulric Lyons 2015 Forecast, UK.

Noël Coward:- “It’s discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.”

Based on the planetary ordering of solar activity.

From March 18/20 a sharp cold snap
Slightly milder 2nd week April
Very warm from April ~15
Cooler and wetter from around April ~29
Warmer from May ~17
Warm burst from ~25 May
Cooler and wetter ~4-9 June
Strong warmth from 10/11 June*************
Cooler and wetter from ~24 June
Possible few warmer days from 29 June (not certain)
Cooler and wetter from 5-7 July
Possible few warmer days from July 19 (not certain)
From July ~29 a strong warm burst************
Weaker warm burst from 8/9 August
Cooler and wetter from August ~20
Possible few warmer days from August ~25/26 (not certain)
From September ~4 cooler-wetter
Slightly milder from October ~2/3
Colder from October ~14
Much colder from November ~4/5

Temperature deviations are relative to normals for the time of year.


Ulric Lyons: Long Range Weather and Climate Forecasts.

ulriclyons at gmail dot com

This forecast is general/unpaid/free. Therefore no high level of precision is claimed. It is presented to show the efficacy of Ulric’s system and stands, unedited, for all time. It takes some effort to drill into the data so if you need precise predictions for events please contact Ulric who will be more than happy to help.

Trust me, I’m a climatologist…..

William Godwin :- “But it is the property of truth to be fearless, and to prove victorious over every adversary. It requires no great degree of fortitude, to look with indifference upon the false fire of the moment, and to foresee the calm period of reason which will succeed.”

It is some 20 months since I last deposited screed at this place. My reasons are manifold but one exceeds others. I have done with the holy writ of climate change/anthropogenic global warming/climate chaos or whatsoever it shall be named from this day hence. I rejoin the heathen mass. I renounce the religiosity of it. I hereby renounce whatever claim it had over my soul. It no longer holds me in thrall of its mighty powers. I fear it no more for it is broken-backed and redundant in the face of, yea, over 15 years with no significant rise in Global Delta T.

The Very Reverend Phil Jones Himself stated; “Bottom line – the no upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.”

Amen brother.

Trouble still abounds for shame. The communists continue to break down thy walls by sharing your treasure, the sweat of your unwashed rabble of course, not any of your wealthy betters’ hard earned, with the despotic leaders of oppressed “Third World” countries (and definitely not with their own great unwashed) via the uncontrolled United Nations. Sustainability (wailing, gnashing of teeth and more wailing) is the new battle crye even in the face of Nature’s Limitless Bounty. I truly despair that the proletariat will suddenly start to think for themselves so I am out of here. So long, and thanks for all the stuff.

I leave with a (very apt as this is the only true agenda of the thieves, brigands and mercenaries of climatology) quote from G.K. Chesterton:- “THE answer to anyone who talks about surplus population is to ask him whether he is surplus population; or if he is not, how he knows he is not.” and (as is most fitting in the climate debate that never happened) an appeal to authority;
“Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself — Climate is beyond our power to control…Earth doesn’t care about governments or their legislation. You can’t find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone’s permission or explaining itself.” — Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

The Phantom Menace

H.L. Mencken :-
“The truly civilized man is always skeptical and tolerant, in this field as in all others. His culture is based on ‘I am not too sure’.”

Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu


“Certainly, global warming is in progress. However, in spite of their claim, not even the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) presents definite scientific proof that “most” of the present warming is caused by the greenhouse effect, as stated in their summary report. It is simply an assumption. Since the physics of the greenhouse effect of CO2 is well known, and since they thought that no other forcing function is likely to be the cause, the IPCC hypothesized that the warming from about 1900 was caused by it. They assembled a large number of scientists, mostly meteorologists and physicists (not necessarily climatologists who are really needed in climate research) and tried to prove their hypothesis based on supercomputer models. They have continued to do so, in spite of new evidence from some ice core data, which shows that the temperature rises tend to precede CO2 rises by about 1000 years, suggesting that the hypothesized relationship between the temperature and CO2 is reversed, namely that some of the past temperature rises may be the cause of CO2 rises. It is very unfortunate that the hypothesis has somehow become ‘fact.’”

Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming:


“Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.”

The “may” in the last sentence is very telling. Do not stray little sheep. Sleep now. Mommie’s here. Here is the teat of further funding.

The great unwashed “may” rise up and overthrow the liars and fraudsters. Gore “may” give back his Nobel and his editors “may” return their Oscar. Pigs “may” fly. But currently this seems unlikely.

Why does the American political system attempt to “tag” failed policy to other business?

“Added to the end of the House bill by the Senate are existing tax bills. One would provide tax incentives for individuals and businesses to save energy, produce alternative energy or mitigate carbon emissions.” – http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/02/BU77139RDC.DTL

Why would some form of carbon tax credit policy be dragged along with the supposedly imperative “bailout” of the very people who have caused the problems we all now face.

Where was Al when Bill did this? – http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2087375/posts


Maybe working with some of the people in that room to create this –

Like verdigris encrusting the bearings of the industry and economies that delivered the very equipment and energy they now use to attempt their power grab the greens have vitiated the cogs of science funding and further perverted politics.

“A few harmless flakes working together can unleash an avalanche of destruction” – http://despair.com/teamwork.html

Such as this team? – http://www.generationim.com/about/team.html

A paper that describes the phenomena from Richard S. Lindzen :

(Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate
Massachusetts Institute of Technology September 19, 2008)

“For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not all these factors are unique to climate science, but the heavy influence of politics has served to amplify the role of the other factors. By cultural factors, I primarily refer to the change in the scientific paradigm from a dialectic opposition between theory and observation to an emphasis on simulation and observational programs. The latter serves to almost eliminate the dialectical focus of the former. Whereas the former had the potential for convergence, the latter is much less effective. The institutional factor has many components. One is the inordinate growth of administration in universities and the consequent increase in importance of grant overhead. This leads to an emphasis on large programs that never end. Another is the hierarchical nature of formal scientific organizations whereby a small executive council can speak on behalf of thousands of scientists as well as govern the distribution of ‘carrots and sticks’ whereby reputations are made and broken. The above factors are all amplified by the need for government funding. When an issue becomes a vital part of a political agenda, as is the case with climate, then the politically desired position becomes a goal rather than a consequence of scientific research. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of.”

This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.